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The Redskins will beat the Falcons if...

1.  They run the football like Carolina did last week against the Falcons. Carolina rushed for 199 yards and had 11 rushes that went for 6 or more yards, not counting Newton's scrambles on passing plays.  It's the Skins' NFC-best rushing attack against the Falcons' 2nd-worst rush defense in the NFC....should be a huge advantage for Washington.

2.  Pressure Matt Ryan without a ton of blitzing. Carolina sacked Ryan 7 times last week.  Falcons' right tackle Tyson Clabo struggled last week which could mean a big day today for Ryan Kerrigan.  The Skins' secondary can't cover, we know that.  Pressure without a ton of blitzing against what will likely be some short drop/quick throws means the pressure must come from up the middle.  Jenkins and Bowen need big days.

3.  No turnovers. Atlanta is 2nd in the NFC in takeaways with 12 and it's made the difference in their games.  They're 4-0 but probably would be closer to 2-2 with fewer takeaways.  The Skins have been very good at protecting the ball this year with just two turnovers in four games.  It must continue today.

Prediction:

Upset alert.  Skins 33-24.

More:

What a great college football Saturday.  South Carolina's defense makes the 'Cocks a legit national championship contender under Spurrier.  Florida has been in trouble at halftime in 3 of their games and won all of them (at Texas A&M, at Tenn, vs. LSU).  Oregon's defense is improved which is scary considering how good their offense is.  How thrilled must West Virginia fans be to play a game at Texas as a member of the Big 12 instead of what would've been a home game against Syracuse.  Florida State put the breaks on their offense up 16-nothing thinking NC State couldn't and wouldn't score.  It cost them a shot at the national championship.  Notre Dame's defense is legit but what a schedule left with Stanford, BYU, Oklahoma, and USC still remaining.  Duke is 5-1 and one game short of bowl eligibility.  This may be Virginia Tech's worst defense in recent memory.  Maryland's Stefon Diggs has been worth 3 wins to the Terps this year.  Without him, they could be 0-5, no better than 1-4.  What was Edsall thinking when he opted to kick the PAT up 19-14 with 5:30 left?  Just amazing that so many coaches can't compute simple math.  With that said, the Terps are night & day better on defense compared to last year.  They go to Virginia next week and the Cavs aren't very good.  4-2 is a possibility.

I'll go with 7-9.

Before I get to why 7-9, an admission that every NFL fan should make.  All preseason predictions are guesses.  Whatever you use as reasoning for your picks is vulnerable.  It's vulnerable to injuries, bad bounces, weather, and more.  The NFL has more year-to-year uncertainty than all of the other professional sports leagues combined.  Even describing it as year-to-year is inaccurate because things change so dramatically week-to-week.

My 7-9 prediction is a judgement on the roster and how it stacks up against others in the division and conference in particular.  It's also an acknowledgment that their AFC games this year come against the AFC North where you could easily argue that three of its four teams have better talent than the Redskins.  But a talent analysis usually doesn't hold up either.  Talent differences from team to team are relatively minor in the NFL.  Secondly, injuries and lucky bounces here and there (turnovers) are just as impactful as talent in determining a team's final record.

So the guess is 7-9 and here's why.

Five of the last 10 rookie QB's to start 10 or more games got to the playoffs.  Not a bad percentage but all five had either a top-7 defense or a top-2 rushing offense.  Do the Redskins have a top-7 defense or a top-2 rushing attack?  I don't think so.

The defense should be good but top-7 might be a reach.  I like the front 7 but the secondary is a huge question mark.  Third-down stops are crucial and even with a solid pass rush, corners and safeties are relied upon to help get offenses off the field.  This is an area that concerns me especially when you consider some of the quarterbacks they'll be facing.  Eli, Romo, and Vick in the division.  Brees, Ryan, Rothlesburger, Flacco, Dalton, and Newton outside of it.  The Skins' D is much better than Cam Newton's defense last year in Carolina.  In fact, it's good enough to keep them competitive.  My gut though is not good enough to carry it to the playoffs similar to say the Jets in 2009.

The rushing attack could be very good this year.  Top-2 is a reach but when we last saw it, Evan Royster was averaging nearly 6 yards per carry.  The Skins had a 100+ yard rusher in five of their last six games.  I like Royster, Helu, and Morris.  The injuries to the offensive line didn't seem to negatively impact the running game late last year.  I think they'll run it and run it very well at times.  But top-2?  Only if RG3 and the passing game is a legit threat and that could take some time.

A few more thoughts.

1.  The Redskins roster is improved but it's still not fast enough.  Overall team speed is better but still far from upper echelon.  Garcon and Griffin are reasons for hope.

2.  Who's the red-zone threat?  Morgan maybe, Briscoe or Hankerson, maybe Davis?  More likely it's RG3 in the spread, running option and other creative plays that are less affected by a condensed field.

3.  The offensive line is an unknown in a system that will differ from the one they ran last year.  It doesn't look good on paper and depth appears to be a major problem.

4.  There was a ton of competition at wide receiver this summer but was it quality competition?  How good is Garcon really and who other than Garcon can catch the ball, make a defender miss, and take it 30 yards downfield?

5.  The teams' best players are on defense as it looks now.  Kerrigan, Cofield, Bowen, Jenkins, Fletcher, and Wilson can play.  Is this the year that Orakpo becomes an elite player?  15+ sacks and a few game-changing forced turnovers would go a long way towards winning a few more than 6 or 7.  It's time for him to do it.  He's talked it, time to walk it.

6. Keeping Brandon Banks was a no-brainer.  He's the only proven playmaker on the team.  He's had 17 plays of 35+ yards in 29 regular season games.  Only Hester has more.

7.  Cundiff was inconsistent last year and that's the nicest thing you can say.  Cutting Gano for Cundiff was a head-scratcher.  The good news-kickers' pasts aren't indicators of their futures.

8.  One more thing.  Mike and Kyle Shanahan are officially under the gun.  They got their quarterback.  Forget what Mike said about Rex and Beck.  They've waited for someone in the draft they loved.  Will RG3 be worth the wait?  He has a unique set of skills.  Those skills and their ability to create an offense that fits them will determine their future and the future of the franchise.

This list is for me but I'll share it with you. It's a list of things about the Skins' 2011 season that I want to remember when we get to free agency, draft, and beyond.

1. Rex Grossman Makes Throws But Can't Make Plays. After 13 games of Rex in 2011, my mind is made up. I like the way Rex throws the football and I love his competitiveness but I can't live with his inability to make a play when the play as-designed breaks down. His lack of mobility, lack of feel in the pocket, and overall lack of extend-the-play ability is just too limiting. Good teams in the NFL have quarterbacks who can extend plays. Teams that score touchdowns in the red zone usually have quarterbacks who can extend plays. It's Grossman's biggest limitation and it's why they shouldn't bring him back.

2. Evan Royster and Roy Helu. While neither is Chris Johnson speed-wise, they're both perfect for the Shanahan running-game scheme. As impressive as Helu was with three straight 100-yard performances in weeks 12-14, I thought Royster was the more-impressive pure runner.

3. No WR YAC. The Skins lack playmakers on offense for sure and much of that is simply that their wide outs can't turn 15-yard pass catches into 30+ yard catches. How many times did Moss, Gaffney, Stallworth, et al make a catch and either fall down or immediately get tackled. Other than QB, this team's biggest need is a playmaking offensive player. They need a WR who can score touchdowns from a distance.

4. Front 7 Impressed. The defensive front 7 was impressive all season long. The free agent additions of Cofield and Bowen were a huge net gain. Adam Carriker played well at times and the linebackers led by Fletcher and Kerrigan were solid. Orakpo can struggle at times against the run and he needs more consistency as a pass rusher but I'm still hopeful his edge speed can wreak havoc. Kerrigan's motor is non-stop and he's a natural playmaker. The emergence of Riley as the other inside LB was a nice surprise.

5. The Davis/Williams Disappointments. Here's the bottom line with this from my perspective. Both were dummies for doing what they did but the overall feeling about both of them from within is that they're not bad people. Given their talent and in particular, the investment in Williams, the Redskins have no choice but to give them a second chance. Williams is under contract which makes the decision on him easy. Davis is a UFA. I would do my best to sign him to a deal that minimizes the risk to the team but incents him to behave and peform.

6. Kory Lichtensteiger. With him, 3-1. Without him, 2-10. Lichtensteiger became late in 2010 and early in 2011 their most reliable offensive lineman.

7. 5 Blocked Field Goals. The Skins were lucky it wasn't more than five. They could've easily had 2-3 PAT's blocked. The problem was interior blocking. Each of the five blocks came from up-the-middle pressure.

8. Clock Managment. This was a problem all season long but reared it's ugliest head in the season-finallee at Philadelphia. With no timeouts and 17 seconds left, the Skins threw a pass short of the goal line, in bounds, and then tried to get the FG team on before the clock ran out. Other examples of horrible clock management included not knowing that they needed to spike the ball after a huge completion at the end of the Minnesota game and using timeouts on offense at the end of the Jet game. Additionally, they never seemed to have a true hurry-up offense. In the Jet game, it took them close to 25 seconds to get snaps off in their supposed "hurry-up".

9. 3rd and 21. If not for an all-out blitz on 3rd and 21, the Redskins would've likely started the season 4-0.

10. Rex's Return Equaled Offensive Competence. The three John Beck games (at Carolina, at Buffalo, SF) were offensive disasters. He seemed terrified and was clearly in over-his-head. When Rex came back against Miami, the Redskins were far more competitive over the final 8 games of the season.

11. Could've, Would've, Should've. A) Both Dallas games were winnable....3rd and 21 at Dallas and Gano's overtime miss at home. B) New England at home looked good until an offensive pass interference penatly was called on Santana Moss on the potential game-tying or game-winning touchdown. Remember, Shanahan indicated he would've gone for two and the win. C) Minnesota at home if not for a horrible holding call against Darrell Young on a Brandon Banks game-tying touchdown run. On the flip side, if not for a 4th and 5 TD pass from Rex to Moss the Skins wouldn't have beaten Arizona.

12. Biggest Offseason Needs. QB, WR, OL, CB, S, and a coach that knows how to manage the clock at the end of halves and games.

Mostly bad in the Skins' final game of the year.

The good, bad, and more.

Good:

1. Evan Royster. If they can add a quarterback, some o-line help, and speed at wide receiver, Royster will be a 1,200-yard next year.

2. Run defense. Much better than last week's horrific performance.

3. Pro efforts from Orakpo, Kerrigan, Cofield, Young, and maybe 1-2 others. Other than that, pretty ugly.

Bad:

1. End of first half #1. Timeout with 1.22 left was stupid because it potentially would have left Philly with too much time left and it did. The 4th and 6 throw by Grossman was horrible.

2. End of first half #2. After the Orakpo-forced fumble, the Redskins decided to stab themselves in the eye with two forks. The Moss penalty is total lack of discipline. To throw the ball short of the end zone with no timeouts left is bad enough but to not know that the only move is to get up to the line of scrimmage and spike the ball as quickly as possible after that completion to Gaffney is amateur. We saw poor clock management multiple times this season....they better bring someone in that knows what he's doing before next season.

3. Pass protection. Awful.

4. Rex. His biggest limitation is his lack of mobility and feel in the pocket. It really limits the offense when pass pro struggles. Oh, the other thing...he throws picks. Just one today but got bailed on what would've been his 2nd if not for a questionable roughing the QB call. In his defense, he had no time to throw the ball all day long.

5. Special Teams. An incredible 5th blocked field goal of the year and a near-blocked PAT. Add to that, Sav Rocca's worst day of the year.

6. Officiating. The unnecessary roughness penalty call on Reed Doughty was one of the worst calls I've ever seen!

7. D-Hall. His attempted tackle on Chad Hall on the TD at the end of the first half was pitiful.

8. Terrible penalties. The Moss unsportsmanlike was the worst. The celebration-penalty on Stallworth was what 5-11 teams do.

9. OJ Atogwe. He had the interception yes but losing DeSean Jackson on Jackson's touchdown catch was a huge play. He's been a disappointment this year. Injuries have been an issue but he hasn't contributed much.

More:

1. 5-11, not too good.

Mostly bad in the Skins' final game of the year.

The good, bad, and more.

Good:

1. Evan Royster. If they can add a quarterback, some o-line help, and speed at wide receiver, Royster will be a 1,200-yard next year.

2. Run defense. Much better than last week's horrific performance.

3. Pro efforts from Orakpo, Kerrigan, Cofield, Young, and maybe 1-2 others. Other than that, pretty ugly.

Bad:

1. End of first half #1. Timeout with 1.22 left was stupid because it potentially would have left Philly with too much time left and it did. The 4th and 6 throw by Grossman was horrible.

2. End of first half #2. After the Orakpo-forced fumble, the Redskins decided to stab themselves in the eye with two forks. The Moss penalty is total lack of discipline. To throw the ball short of the end zone with no timeouts left is bad enough but to not know that the only move is to get up to the line of scrimmage and spike the ball as quickly as possible after that completion to Gaffney is amateur. We saw poor clock management multiple times this season....they better bring someone in that knows what he's doing before next season.

3. Pass protection. Awful.

4. Rex. His biggest limitation is his lack of mobility and feel in the pocket. It really limits the offense when pass pro struggles. Oh, the other thing...he throws picks. Just one today but got bailed on what would've been his 2nd if not for a questionable roughing the QB call. In his defense, he had no time to throw the ball all day long.

5. Special Teams. An incredible 5th blocked field goal of the year and a near-blocked PAT. Add to that, Sav Rocca's worst day of the year.

6. Officiating. The unnecessary roughness penalty call on Reed Doughty was one of the worst calls I've ever seen!

7. D-Hall. His attempted tackle on Chad Hall on the TD at the end of the first half was pitiful.

8. Terrible penalties. The Moss unsportsmanlike was the worst. The celebration-penalty on Stallworth was what 5-11 teams do.

9. OJ Atogwe. He had the interception yes but losing DeSean Jackson on Jackson's touchdown catch was a huge play. He's been a disappointment this year. Injuries have been an issue but he hasn't contributed much.

More:

1. 5-11, not too good.

Mostly bad in the Skins' final game of the year.

The good, bad, and more.

Good:

1. Evan Royster. If they can add a quarterback, some o-line help, and speed at wide receiver, Royster will be a 1,200-yard next year.

2. Run defense. Much better than last week's horrific performance.

3. Pro efforts from Orakpo, Kerrigan, Cofield, Young, and maybe 1-2 others. Other than that, pretty ugly.

Bad:

1. End of first half #1. Timeout with 1.22 left was stupid because it potentially would have left Philly with too much time left and it did. The 4th and 6 throw by Grossman was horrible.

2. End of first half #2. After the Orakpo-forced fumble, the Redskins decided to stab themselves in the eye with two forks. The Moss penalty is total lack of discipline. To throw the ball short of the end zone with no timeouts left is bad enough but to not know that the only move is to get up to the line of scrimmage and spike the ball as quickly as possible after that completion to Gaffney is amateur. We saw poor clock management multiple times this season....they better bring someone in that knows what he's doing before next season.

3. Pass protection. Awful.

4. Rex. His biggest limitation is his lack of mobility and feel in the pocket. It really limits the offense when pass pro struggles. Oh, the other thing...he throws picks. Just one today but got bailed on what would've been his 2nd if not for a questionable roughing the QB call. In his defense, he had no time to throw the ball all day long.

5. Special Teams. An incredible 5th blocked field goal of the year and a near-blocked PAT. Add to that, Sav Rocca's worst day of the year.

6. Officiating. The unnecessary roughness penalty call on Reed Doughty was one of the worst calls I've ever seen!

7. D-Hall. His attempted tackle on Chad Hall on the TD at the end of the first half was pitiful.

8. Terrible penalties. The Moss unsportsmanlike was the worst. The celebration-penalty on Stallworth was what 5-11 teams do.

9. OJ Atogwe. He had the interception yes but losing DeSean Jackson on Jackson's touchdown catch was a huge play. He's been a disappointment this year. Injuries have been an issue but he hasn't contributed much.

More:

1. 5-11, not too good.

For the 15th time in the last 19 seasons the Redskins will play a meaningless game in their season finallee.  Pathetic.  With that said, I'm a believer that they are in better shape as a football organization than they've been since the 2001 Marty Schottenheimer season.  Can they win today?  Yes.  Here's how.

1.  Young players are hungry and play with fight.  The Redskins have younger players trying to prove something and the likes of Royster, Willie Smith, Tyler Palumbus, Ryan Kerrigan, DeJon Gomes, Perry Riley, etc have so much to play for.  With an early start on New Year's Day of a meaningless game, the winning team is often the one most interested.  The Redskins have more players on the field with more to prove.

2.  Turnover winner may equal game winner.  The Skins have the worst turnover margin in the league at -15, the Eagles are 2nd-worst at -14.

3.  Run the ball and keep defense off the field.  T he defense was the culprit last week and it has been more often than people like to say.  241 yards allowed on the ground last week to Minnesota is far too many.  Evan Royster could have a big game in Philly and will need one to a) keep Rex protected against the Eagle pass rush which has been very good and b) keep the Skins' defense and Vick off the field.

Prediction:

Eagles 24, Redskins 23

For the 15th time in the last 19 seasons the Redskins will play a meaningless game in their season finallee.  Pathetic.  With that said, I'm a believer that they are in better shape as a football organization than they've been since the 2001 Marty Schottenheimer season.  Can they win today?  Yes.  Here's how.

1.  Young players are hungry and play with fight.  The Redskins have younger players trying to prove something and the likes of Royster, Willie Smith, Tyler Palumbus, Ryan Kerrigan, DeJon Gomes, Perry Riley, etc have so much to play for.  With an early start on New Year's Day of a meaningless game, the winning team is often the one most interested.  The Redskins have more players on the field with more to prove.

2.  Turnover winner may equal game winner.  The Skins have the worst turnover margin in the league at -15, the Eagles are 2nd-worst at -14.

3.  Run the ball and keep defense off the field.  T he defense was the culprit last week and it has been more often than people like to say.  241 yards allowed on the ground last week to Minnesota is far too many.  Evan Royster could have a big game in Philly and will need one to a) keep Rex protected against the Eagle pass rush which has been very good and b) keep the Skins' defense and Vick off the field.

Prediction:

Eagles 24, Redskins 23

This was a loss that seems from a distance to fall on the coaching staff and in particular, the play-calling mind(s).  With the ball and up 10-7 in the first half, the play-calling turned from run-pass balance to pass-pass unbalance.  14 of their final 16 offensive plays in the first half were passes after 9 runs and 7 passes were called to start the game.

Fast-forward to the critical sequence of the game following Brandon Banks’ punt return got the Skins to the Jets’ 31 with 9:26 left.  The play-calling became far too conservative with the game on the line at that point.  What the Jets did when they got their opportunity was take a deep shot to Holmes which proved to be the game-winner.  The Redskins never took a shot, settled for the field goal, and any momentum they had off the Banks’ punt return was lost.

The good, bad, and more.

Good:

1.    Punt Coverage. Exceptional all day and the one turnover the team got was on punt coverage.  I would have listed kickoff coverage as well but the short Gano kickoff after taking a 16-13 lead was a costly play.

2.    2nd Half Defense (Until the Very End). I know they ultimately gave up 34 points but the defense kept them in the game until late in the 4th quarter.  They held the Jets to 266 yards and they held New York to 38 total yards and 3 points on the Jets’ first 6 possessions of the 2nd half.

3.    Roy Helu’s Running. Helu did another nice job running the football when he got chances.  Two straight 100-yard days.  The fumble turned out to cost them nothing.

Bad:

1.    Play-Calling. Too much throwing with the running game working early.  Too conservative with a chance to take control of the game after the Banks’ punt return with 9:26 left.  Additionally, the lack of running the ball after the 2nd quarter hurt their pass protection.

2.    Pass Protection. Not very good especially once the run became a non-priority.  Jamal Brown struggled for sure and Helu whiffed a few times in protection as well.

3.    Not Enough First-Half Pass Rush. Sanchez wasn’t touched in the first half on the Jets’ two scoring drives.

4.    Rex Grossman. He was inaccurate when he had time and couldn’t extend the play when he didn’t.  His lack of mobility and playmaking ability when the play breaks down is his biggest limitation.  He was lucky he wasn’t picked off 3-4 times.

5.    Clock Management. It’s been bad...it got worse today.  For starters, they didn’t need to take as many timeouts as they did at the end of the first half.  If they HAD scored a touchdown earlier instead of settling for the field goal, they would have left the Jets with too much time to do something on offense.  Secondly, down 27-16, they chose to use two timeouts on offense rather than save them for defense after the made field goal.  An absolute terrible decision which led directly to the need to attempt an onsides kick.  Thirdly, the Skins’ hurry-up offense is too slow!  Why can’t they get to the line of scrimmage and run a play quickly??

6.    Graham Gano’s short kickoff. A killer play after taking a 3-pt lead.  It was bad enough that they weren’t more aggressive on the preceding offensive possession but to follow it up with a short kickoff and allow the big return was a very costly play.

Other:

1.    Terrible miss by referee on the running-into-the punter call on Rocca’s 2nd quarter punt.  Should’ve been a roughing-the-punter 15-yard penalty which would’ve put the Skins in Jets territory with a 10-7 lead.

2.    Ryan Kerrigan gets held a lot without calls.  I thought he got held in the end zone on a play that would’ve resulted in a safety.

3.    The Skins’ tricky onsides kick formation tricked nobody including the referees who called an illegal formation.

4.    Santana Moss had two drops including one that may have scored.  That one could’ve cut the lead 27-22 or 27-24 with time left.